“Extend and Pretend”

 

That is the phrase that bankers are using to describe how they will handle the coming commercial real estate collapse.

I saw my uncle over the holidays and he has been in and out of commercial real estate since the ‘70’s.  He was recently working with some bankers on a deal and he asked how they would handle the round of refinancing that is coming.  “Extend and pretend” was the answer.

A little explanation will help you to understand what this means.  When a new construction project is built, it is frequently done on a 5 year note (and, though I am not positive on this, maybe interest-only).  At that end of those 5 years, the borrower is supposed to retire the note and refinance into a longer term loan.  So, what was going on 5 years ago when those loans were being made?  That’s right, a lot of loans were being made on everything from shopping malls to hotels to office buildings.  Many of which are empty right now.  And therein lies the problem.  The project was originally funded based on a higher value.  Clearly, that value is gone now.  So if you are a bank and are holding a note with a face value of $10 million on a piece of property that is now worth only maybe $6 million, what do you do?

You extend and pretend.

The good news is that, according to Evil CEO Jamie Dimon at J.P. Morgan, the worst may be over.